Macro Influencers to Your Forecast
Finding good references for your business forecast is a challenge, so AFP is pleased to bring you additional resources and data to support your planning. The data in the graphs below represent the “wisdom of the crowd” as proxy measures for topics that may impact your outlook throughout 2022. The data is a probabilistic outcome that will change throughout the year, and is available through our partnership with Good Judgment Inc.
In his AFP presentation, Dr. Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment, shared his Five Key Steps to Becoming a Superforecaster, based on the research of Philip Tetlock and described in his New York Times bestselling book, Superforecasting. The first step is to start with a base rate: find good comparison classes and then tackle the specifics of the question. Bringing in these outside views is essential to broaden your knowledge, check your biases, and increase your awareness of changing situations.
COVID and economic growth proxy:
ESG and tax policy:
COVID recovery and impact:
ESG and capital markets: