Macro Influencers to Your Forecast

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Finding good references for your business forecast is a challenge, so AFP is pleased to bring you additional resources and data to support your planning. The data in the graphs below represent the “wisdom of the crowd” as proxy measures for topics that may impact your outlook throughout 2022. The data is a probabilistic outcome that will change throughout the year, and is available through our partnership with Good Judgment Inc.

In his AFP presentation, Dr. Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment, shared his Five Key Steps to Becoming a Superforecaster, based on the research of Philip Tetlock and described in his New York Times bestselling book, Superforecasting. The first step is to start with a base rate: find good comparison classes and then tackle the specifics of the question. Bringing in these outside views is essential to broaden your knowledge, check your biases, and increase your awareness of changing situations.  


Good Judgment

More information about Good Judgment is available on their website. A replay of the Dr. Hatch’s AFP webinar will be available soon on AFP Learn.


COVID and economic growth proxy:


ESG and tax policy: 


COVID recovery and impact: 


RETIRED



ESG and capital markets: 

 


Finance Professionals Can Use These 5 Steps to Become Superforecasters

In 2011, on the heels of some major forecasting failures, the U.S. government sponsored a competition to improve the “wisdom of the crowd.”

Professor Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania led a team of Good Judgement forecasters in a government-sponsored forecasting competition, and handily beat the skilled analysts of the defense intelligence community who had access to classified data, university researchers, and various other teams. Oddly, Tetlocks forecasters were not savants, did not have deep technical expertise or experience in the fields of their forecast. What they did have, however, were various traits that helped them to eliminate biases and produce better results than most people in the crowd.

Read the full article.


Benchmark

Micro-economic benchmarks from your fellow FP&A practitioners
about their current and future spending. MORE.


SCenario_3

The AFP FP&A Guide to Scenario Planning, for thinking through situations
where forecasting falls short of out-of-the-box thinking. Learn more.


Momentum5

The FP&A Momentum Index, a quarterly update on the business climate.
Learn more.


Planning_Page_CenterScope

Pulling varied and trusted sources of data into your organization enriches your
point of view, reduces biases, and grounds your assumptions. For that reason,
AFP has compiled several resources available from this page to aid your budget
cycle and continuous planning efforts. Visit the planning center.